Three real backtests.
Below are three example outputs straight from the bot — one PASS, one PROMISING, one REJECT — so you can see exactly what the tool produces before installing it.
Momentum signal on QQQ — survives both checks.
Why this passes. The momentum signal produced 62 round-trips over the test period, enough statistical power to drive a meaningful confidence interval. Both the standard 95% CI and the Bonferroni-corrected 95% CI exclude zero — meaning the lower bound of plausible returns is still positive even after adjusting for the multiple parameter variants tested. The strategy also marginally outperforms buy-and-hold rather than just tracking it. This is the strongest verdict EdgeAudit issues; everything above this is just degrees of confidence.
EMA(12/26) crossover on MSFT — survives the lighter check, not the harder one.
Why this is only "promising". The strategy looks profitable in isolation — the 95% confidence interval just excludes zero (lower bound +0.6%), so by the conventional retail standard you'd call it a winner. But once we widen the threshold to account for the multiple parameter variants typically explored before arriving at the chosen 12/26 setting, the Bonferroni-corrected lower bound drops below zero (-2.4%). That means we can't statistically rule out that the apparent edge is multiple-comparison noise. It also underperforms buy-and-hold by 6.1 percentage points per year. "Promising" is the verdict you should expect for most plausible-but-unconvincing strategies — interesting enough to research further, not safe enough to deploy.
RSI(14) mean-reversion on AAPL — neither check survives.
Why this is rejected. The headline annualised return is positive but small, and the confidence interval is wide. Even the more permissive 95% threshold can't rule out that the strategy makes money by luck rather than skill — the lower bound is firmly negative. The Bonferroni-adjusted threshold is wider still. The strategy also underperforms buy-and-hold by over 7 percentage points per year. Without statistical discipline, you might look at "+3.2% annualised over 87 trades" and call this a working strategy. EdgeAudit calls it noise.
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